Extensible benchmarking of methods that identify and quantify polyadenylation sites from RNA-seq data.

The tremendous rate with which data is generated and analysis methods emerge makes it increasingly difficult to keep track of their domain of applicability, assumptions, limitations, and consequently, of the efficacy and precision with which they solve specific tasks. Therefore, there is an increasing need for benchmarks, and for the provision of infrastructure for continuous method evaluation. APAeval is an international community effort, organized by the RNA Society in 2021, to benchmark tools for the identification and quantification of the usage of alternative polyadenylation (APA) sites from short-read, bulk RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) data. Here, we reviewed 17 tools and benchmarked eight on their ability to perform APA identification and quantification, using a comprehensive set of RNA-seq experiments comprising real, synthetic, and matched 3'-end sequencing data. To support continuous benchmarking, we have incorporated the results into the OpenEBench online platform, which allows for continuous extension of the set of methods, metrics, and challenges. We envisage that our analyses will assist researchers in selecting the appropriate tools for their studies, while the containers and reproducible workflows could easily be deployed and extended to evaluate new methods or data sets.

Extensible benchmarking of methods that identify and quantify polyadenylation sites from RNA-seq data.

The tremendous rate with which data is generated and analysis methods emerge makes it increasingly difficult to keep track of their domain of applicability, assumptions, and limitations and consequently, of the efficacy and precision with which they solve specific tasks. Therefore, there is an increasing need for benchmarks, and for the provision of infrastructure for continuous method evaluation. APAeval is an international community effort, organized by the RNA Society in 2021, to benchmark tools for the identification and quantification of the usage of alternative polyadenylation (APA) sites from short-read, bulk RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) data. Here, we reviewed 17 tools and benchmarked eight on their ability to perform APA identification and quantification, using a comprehensive set of RNA-seq experiments comprising real, synthetic, and matched 3'-end sequencing data. To support continuous benchmarking, we have incorporated the results into the OpenEBench online platform, which allows for seamless extension of the set of methods, metrics, and challenges. We envisage that our analyses will assist researchers in selecting the appropriate tools for their studies. Furthermore, the containers and reproducible workflows generated in the course of this project can be seamlessly deployed and extended in the future to evaluate new methods or datasets.

Predictors of COVID-19 epidemics in countries of the World Health Organization African Region.

Countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region have experienced a wide range of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics. This study aimed to identify predictors of the timing of the first COVID-19 case and the per capita mortality in WHO African Region countries during the first and second pandemic waves and to test for associations with the preparedness of health systems and government pandemic responses. Using a region-wide, country-based observational study, we found that the first case was detected earlier in countries with more urban populations, higher international connectivity and greater COVID-19 test capacity but later in island nations. Predictors of a high first wave per capita mortality rate included a more urban population, higher pre-pandemic international connectivity and a higher prevalence of HIV. Countries rated as better prepared and having more resilient health systems were worst affected by the disease, the imposition of restrictions or both, making any benefit of more stringent countermeasures difficult to detect. Predictors for the second wave were similar to the first. Second wave per capita mortality could be predicted from that of the first wave. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights unanticipated vulnerabilities to infectious disease in Africa that should be taken into account in future pandemic preparedness planning.

Real-time monitoring of COVID-19 in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: To manage the public health risk posed by COVID-19 and assess the impact of interventions, policymakers must be able to closely monitor the epidemic's trajectory. METHODS: Here we present a simple methodology based on basic surveillance metrics for monitoring the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on health services in Scotland. RESULTS: We examine how the dynamics of the epidemic have changed over time and assess the similarities and differences between metrics. DISCUSSION: We illustrate how our method has been used throughout the epidemic in Scotland, explore potential biases and conclude that our method has proven to be an effective tool for monitoring the epidemic's trajectory.

Segmentation and shielding of the most vulnerable members of the population as elements of an exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown.

This study demonstrates that an adoption of a segmenting and shielding strategy could increase the scope to partially exit COVID-19 lockdown while limiting the risk of an overwhelming second wave of infection. We illustrate this using a mathematical model that segments the vulnerable population and their closest contacts, the 'shielders'. Effects of extending the duration of lockdown and faster or slower transition to post-lockdown conditions and, most importantly, the trade-off between increased protection of the vulnerable segment and fewer restrictions on the general population are explored. Our study shows that the most important determinants of outcome are: (i) post-lockdown transmission rates within the general and between the general and vulnerable segments; (ii) fractions of the population in the vulnerable and shielder segments; (iii) adherence to protective measures; and (iv) build-up of population immunity. Additionally, we found that effective measures in the shielder segment, e.g. intensive routine screening, allow further relaxations in the general population. We find that the outcome of any future policy is strongly influenced by the contact matrix between segments and the relationships between physical distancing measures and transmission rates. This strategy has potential applications for any infectious disease for which there are defined proportions of the population who cannot be treated or who are at risk of severe outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.